In 2024, the veteran lithium battery enterprises will be eliminated
According to the latest data of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, from January to December, 2023, a total of 52 power battery enterprises in China’s new energy vehicle market achieved vehicle loading facilities, 5 fewer than the same period of last year, and the elimination rate was close to 10%.We have every reason to believe. Coin cell spring:10 It will become the mainstream of the industry and will gradually affect more and more people. https://www.canrud.com/products/detail/81f89a31076f4fd18e883ee190d194cd
On the other hand, the top ten power battery enterprises have loaded 375.3GWh, accounting for 96.8% of the total vehicle. Compared with 95% in 2022, 93.5% in 2021 and 91.8% in 2020, power battery companies have staged the drama that the stronger the stronger.
Power battery companies ranked lower are struggling.
Gateway Power, a lithium battery factory owned by Galaxy, is obviously one of them. From January to October, 2023, the loading capacity of Gateway Power was only 0.88GWh, ranking 13th. Now, the company has stopped production for two months.
Source/Weibo New Energy Prospective Screenshot
Jiewei Power was established in 2009 with a registered capital of 1.218 billion yuan. It is a 15-year veteran lithium battery enterprise. Once, it was full of lofty sentiments. It became the top 3 in the power battery industry in five years, ranked among the top 3 in the world in 10 years, applied for IPO of A shares in 2022, and strived for listing in 2023. After all, it was “but before he could conquer, he was dead”.
Obviously, in the power battery industry, there are still many battery manufacturers that are not as good as Jiewei Power. They are also facing many problems, even life and death tests. How do you spend this winter?
01
Small battery factories are getting worse every year.
The person in charge of the lithium battery manufacturer who suffered in 2023 will definitely miss 2022, especially the “small factory” of lithium batteries.
Wu Sujun, a grassroots employee who has worked in Jiewei Power for more than ten years, once told the media that the company still has some orders in 2022, but the quantity is not large. Mainly small modules, not finished products. In 2023, there was no order, and the factory could only do some battery repair work, and about 200 sets were repaired every month.
Compared with more than 2,400 employees in the glorious period, gateway power had only about 400 employees left in its headquarters before the production stopped, and 200 people left after the production stopped. The 2022 annual report shows that in 2022, the number of social security participants of Jiewei Power was 882, which dropped by more than 70% in less than one year.
The closed production lines record the cruelty of the lithium battery industry. According to the Shenzhen Communique of the 10th G20！-Lithium Battery Summit, since 2023, the average capacity utilization rate of domestic power batteries is less than 60%, and that of energy storage batteries is less than 55%.
Figure/Jiewei Power Electric Center Workshop
Source/Gateway Power Official Website New Energy Prospective Screenshot
In fact, in addition to the power battery companies such as Jiewei Power, there are also four major materials (cathode materials, anode materials, separators and electrolytes) for lithium batteries.
In terms of capacity utilization rate, many companies disclosed that the overall capacity utilization rate of the anode industry decreased significantly in 2023. Even the leading enterprise Shangtai Technology announced the suspension of production in the first quarter of 2023.
On the evening of March 27, 2023, Shangtai Technology announced that Licheng Road Base had stopped production. It is reported that Licheng Road Base started construction in 2008. It is the earliest production base of Shangtai Technology, and also the starting place and birthplace of the company’s entrepreneurship, with an annual production capacity of over 10,000 tons.
”The supply and demand of the entire anode material industry has reversed, facing a situation of overcapacity.” Shangtai Technology clearly stated in the announcement.
The performance of Ferrous lithium phosphate cathode manufacturers in operating rate is also relatively sluggish. According to market data, in November 2023, the average operating rate of manufacturers was less than 50%, and it has accelerated to about 20% since December. The output of cathode materials in Ferrous lithium phosphate has reached a new low since June 2023.
02
Solve overcapacity
”Surplus” became the label of lithium battery industry in 2023.
Mr. Gang ‘an, the technology developer of Jiewei Power, said that the company kept investing in building factories, which eventually led to overcapacity.
How many lithium batteries did Gateway Power produce? According to the information of official website, Jiewei Power has two production bases, Yancheng and Changxing, with an effective production capacity of 10GWh. Jiewei Power CEO Lu Chenli announced in 2022 that the company plans to reach the power battery production capacity of 100GWh in 2025.
Source/Gateway Power Official Website New Energy Prospective Screenshot
Zhu Huarong, Chairman of Changan Automobile, once predicted that by 2025, the demand for power batteries in China will be 1000GWh, while the production capacity of the industry has reached 4800GWh, and the degree of excess can be imagined.
The four major materials of lithium battery also have different degrees of surplus. Some organizations predict that the global electrolyte capacity planning will exceed the demand by 3.4 million tons in 2025.
It is also a means of self-help for the lithium battery factory and the four major material enterprises behind it to delay the production capacity and adopt the low inventory procurement policy.
The semi-annual report of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited in 2023 shows that its inventory is only 48.91 billion yuan, which is 27.76 billion yuan less than that at the end of 2022. Zhongchuang Singapore Airlines, the third in the industry, cleared its inventory slightly, and its inventory decreased from 11.82 billion yuan at the end of 2022 to 10 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.2%.
Enterprises in the upper and middle reaches of lithium batteries have been kidnapped by the “game theory” of production capacity, forcing low inventory.
Jin Yiteng, an open source securities company, said that as the pace of production scheduling in downstream battery factories declined and the price of lithium battery materials in the middle reaches continued to fall due to overcapacity, battery factories also adopted a lower raw material inventory procurement strategy, forcing middle-stream lithium battery materials enterprises to reduce their start-up, maintain low inventory, and delay the launch of new capacity.
Low inventory is obtained on the premise of price reduction. According to the data of Xinyi Lithium Battery, an industry research institution, on January 24th, 2024, the average price of square Ferrous lithium phosphate power battery and energy storage battery was 0.38 yuan /Wh and 0.43 yuan /Wh, respectively, which was more than 50% lower than the price of 0.9 yuan /Wh in early 2023, and the price has reached the lowest point in history.
The seriousness of the price reduction can be seen. According to the statistics of Hi-Tech Lithium Battery, compared with 2022, the gross profit margin of diaphragm listed companies in the third quarter of 2023 decreased by about 40%, the electrolyte field decreased by about 25%, the cathode field decreased by about 20%, the ternary cathode decreased by about 9%, and the iron-lithium cathode decreased by about 5%.
03
Power Battery 2024: More Fierce Fight
”After experiencing rapid growth in demand and production capacity, the lithium battery field is currently facing the challenge of overcapacity. It is expected that supply and demand will further deteriorate in 2024 and it is expected to ease in 2025. ” Huatai Securities pointed out.
